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By Ann Tatko, Contra Costa Times
October 27, 2002 -- In less than
a week, the U.S. Olympic Committee will
select either San Francisco or New York
as its candidate city for the 2012 Olympics.
The USOC's 123-member board of directors
will vote by secret ballot Saturday during
its biannual meeting in Colorado Springs,
Colo. But predicting who will win that vote
is harder than forecasting who will play
in next year's World Series. Even the experts
are hedging their bets on this one.
"You'd have a better chance of guessing
right if you flipped a coin than if you
tried to make an educated guess," said Michael
Brosher, an Olympic historian and author
of "How the Games Were Won." "I was one
of the so-called experts who predicted an
early exit for New York back in August."
New York wasn't even supposed to make the
final cut from four cities to two in late
August. Washington, D.C., and the Bay Area
were the favorites, largely because they
had more conservative budgets than New York,
whose estimated construction costs have
ranged from $2.4 billion to $6.5 billion.
With the International Olympic Committee
analyzing cost-cutting measures, New York's
budget seemed far too hefty. But then its
bid group officials revealed that the city
spends an average of $12 billion on construction
projects each year, and New York sneaked
back in the race.
Still, that doesn't mean the issue is dead,
especially as IOC officials continue emphasizing
the need for low-risk bids. For that reason,
Rob Livingstone, whose Web site www.gamesbids.com
focuses on the Olympic bid races, said San
Francisco would fare better on the international
level.
"(USOC officials) have said their goal
is to win at the international level, so
if they take that into consideration, they
should pick San Francisco," Livingstone
said. "But that said, nothing seems to make
sense so far."
Against Washington, D.C., the Bay Area
might have held an edge in international
appeal, which is necessary to win the IOC
vote in 2005 against cities such as Paris,
London and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Instead,
the Bay Area finds itself matched against
a city calling itself the "world's second
home."
Beyond international recognition, the two
cities have distinctly different bids.
New York is a real estate driven bid with
proven corporate backing, having raised
$4.6 million in contributions so far. The
Bay Area has what it calls an "athlete-centric"
bid, which was designed primarily by Olympians
and projects a surplus of $409 million,
part of which would be given to U.S. Olympic
sports organizations.
Both bid groups have encountered problems,
although New York's seem more troublesome.
Recent reports questioned whether the Bay
Area could gain access to the land it wants
for two of its venues, including the Olympic
Village. In New York, the proposed Olympic
stadium in West Manhattan, Olympic Village
in Queens West and rowing venue in Flushing
Meadows face opposition from politicians
and neighborhood groups. Also, earlier this
month, an independent financial study found
that the bid group's estimate of $2.4 billion
for construction was too low.
The latter revelation has led opposition
groups in New York to question how much
more the bid group is hiding.
Unlike the Bay Area group, New York officials
haven't posted their bid materials on the
Internet. "It's secretive because their
financial plan simply does not work -- it's
public financing," said John Fisher of the
Clinton Special District Coalition, a neighborhood
group in Hells Kitchen. "They don't want
people to know that it'll probably go belly
up and leave New York City taxpayers holding
the bag."
USOC officials already have overlooked
the financial questions once. They may do
so again, especially with sentiment still
strong because of the Sept. 11 terrorist
attacks on the city.
"San Francisco clearly has the better logistical
package," said Lisa Delpy Neirotti, a professor
of sports and events management at George
Washington University. "But look what got
New York this far: sentiment and allure.
Maybe that will continue to be enough to
get the votes."
Bay Area Sports Organizing Committee president
Anne Cribbs recognizes that possibility.
But she said she believes the USOC board,
which includes athletes and representatives
of sports organizations, will vote for the
best bid. "I have a lot of faith in the
Olympic Movement and the people involved
in the movement," Cribbs said. "I'm sure
they will choose the city that can offer
the best invitation to the world."
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